My guess for the number would be -270k.
Fed policy isn’t particularly sensitive to US labor market data in the current environment. Non-Farm Payrolls report still paints a broad picture of the state of the US labor market, and as such, will provide key insight to traders. At this point, it’s worth noting that the BLS’s estimate of jobs is derived from two surveys conducted in the week that contains the 12th of the month (March in this case), so much of the recent disruptions in the labor market (including the unprecedented 10M in unemployment claims over the last two weeks) will NOT appear in this month’s NFP report.
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