Gold Rally Challenging Major Uptrend Resistance into Q3

GOLD PRICE CHART – XAU/USD WEEKLY

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; Gold on Tradingview

Gold prices rallied to fresh eight year highs in the second quarter with an advance of more than 23% off the March lows taking XAU/USD into long-term uptrend resistance heading into the July open. The focus is on a reaction here with a weekly close above trend resistance needed to keep the breakout trade viable. While the broader focus remains higher in price, the threat for a larger correction is in focus on the back of this four-week advance and we’re looking for a reaction early in the month.

Bottom line: From a trading standpoint, be on guard for a possible exhaustion high early in the quarter with a larger pullback to offer more favorable positioning closer to trend support. Ultimately we’ll want to see a breach / close above the 2012 highs to keep the broader 2018 advance viable as we head into the second half of the year. The question heading into the Q3 is – does a breakout here mark resumption or do we get the correction first? We should find out in the first few weeks of July – stay tuned!

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