WEAKER THAN EXPECTED NFP REPORT TO RESULT IN A MORE SUBSTANTIAL DEPRECIATION OF THE DOLLAR

Each day brings more data that suggests the US economy could be weakening more abruptly than assumed only recently. In the view of economists at MUFG Bank, weakening US data is set to weaken the US Dollar further.

Weaker growth concerns increase

“With the ISM Manufacturing Employment Index down at 46.9, there is growing evidence that the positive demand in the US labour market is now beginning to fade. If that is confirmed on Friday by a weaker than expected Nonfarm Payrolls report it will likely result in a more substantial depreciation of the Dollar.”

“The potential tightening of credit conditions fuelled by banking sector turmoil is likely to see another hit to real economic activity. Indeed, it is worth noting that credit conditions were already tightening significantly prior to the March banking sector turmoil that may explain the  weakness in the data we are seeing for February.” 

“The area of the US economy that has held up best continues to be the labour market but we may be on the cusp of that changing.”