USD/TRY jumped after yesterday’s 650 bps rate hike by the Turkish central bank. Economists at Commerzbank analyze Lira's outlook.

The only helpful variable will be repeated commitment by the president to stick with this new policy regime

No magnitude of rate hike will suffice to stabilise the Lira. The only helpful variable will be repeated commitment by the president to stick with this new policy regime until it has succeeded.

Perversely, yesterday’s depreciation move might even increase his proclivity to call interest rate hikes a proven failure. Here’s hoping against that disaster