EUR/CAD – Eyes On The Canadian Jobs Report

#OPINIONLEADER#

 JUN 3, 2021

• Market awaiting Canadian jobs report release
• Job loss expected in Canada
• EUR/CAD trading at one-year low

Chart 1: EUR/CAD D1 chart

EUR/CAD has been ranging within 190pips for the past three weeks. The tight range, as indicated by the squeezing of the Bollinger Bands, implies low volatility during this period as the market may be waiting for major announcements or economic data releases before price breaks out of this range.

The Canadian jobs report is due for release tomorrow at 2030 (GMT+8). Due to the COVID-19 lockdown measure imposed on Ontario state of Canada in early April, employment during that month took a strong hit and is expected to have an impact in May as well. The market is forecasting jobs to decline by 23,500 in May and unemployment rate to inch upwards. Therefore, the Canadian dollar is expected to take a hit by the potential release of a poor jobs report, presenting buying opportunities of EUR/CAD. On the other hand, if the jobs report turns out to be better than forecasted, caution should be exercised when looking for selling opportunities of EUR/CAD as it is currently trading at the one-year low level. Thus, for EUR/CAD to break below that level may require a much stronger conviction.

Trade Setup for EUR/CAD (D1)

Buy Stop order at 1.48500

Upcoming major news that may impact price movement of USD/CAD

04 June – European Central Bank President Lagarde speaking at 1900 (GMT+8)

04 June – Canadian jobs report release at 2030 (GMT+8)

04 June – Canadian Ivey PMI data release at 2200 (GMT+8)

08 June – Eurozone Final Employment Change q/q data release at 1700 (GMT+8)

08 June – Eurozone Revised GDP q/q data release at 1700 (GMT+8)

09 June – Bank of Canada monetary policy decision announcement at 2200 (GMT+8)

09 June – Bank of Canada press conference at a tentative timing

10 June – European Central Bank monetary policy decision announcement at 1945 (GMT+8)

10 June – European Central Bank press conference at 2030 (GMT+8)