EUR/USD’s fall from 1.1908 extended lower last week and the development argue that rebound from 1.1663 has completed at 1.1908 already, after rejection by 1.1907 resistance. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for retesting 1.1663. A firm break there will resume the fall from 1.2265, and the pattern from 1.2348 to 1.1602 key support next. On the upside, above 1.1788 will turn bias back to the upside for 1.1908 again.
In the bigger picture, the rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally remains in favor long as 1.1602 support holds, to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). However sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that the rise from 1.0635 is over, and turn medium-term outlook bearish again. A deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289 and below.
In the long-term picture, the focus remains on 1.2555 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). Sustained break there should confirm long-term bullish reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 1.3862 and above. However, rejection by 1.2555 will keep long-term outlook neutral first, and raise the prospect of downtrend resumption at a later stage.
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