明天的欧洲央行会议会发生什么吗？

随着世界上大多数中央银行的政策“正常化”，并且一些中央银行开始大幅提高利率，欧洲央行处于独特的地位。

虽然发生了很多事情，欧洲央行成员有很多事情要谈论，但他们没有太多事情要做。因此，就市场的直接反应而言，明天的欧洲央行政策会议可能不是事件。

这并不意味着它不重要。事实上，分析师将仔细审查不同成员的观点，以更好地了解事情的发展方向。具体来说，如果有理由重新评估欧洲央行何时可能开始调整其政策。

目前的估计是，欧洲央行将在明年保持其资产购买计划的顺利进行。因此，这还不是主要问题。

什么才是正常的？

与美联储或英国央行不同，欧洲央行在新冠危机爆发之前就已经处于宽松模式。

利率已经为负，并且已经有资产购买计划。与其他大型央行相比，这使得欧洲央行与日本央行更加相似。

欧洲央行恢复到疫情前的“正常”意味着不会加息，只会减少量化宽松。

这并不意味着欧洲央行的“缩减”不会对市场产生影响。尽管如此，交易员在欧洲大陆的货币政策方面面临着不同的现实。

我们应该注意什么

尽管没有英国和美国那么多的问题，但欧洲也未能幸免于供应和物流问题。

价格正在攀升，即使它们尚未威胁要改变货币政策。尽管如此，至少欧洲央行行长拉加德已经成为一个足以评论的问题。

欧洲央行政策成员之间的共识似乎是通胀将一如既往地“暂时”。但现在美国当局开始认识到通货膨胀不是暂时的。

也就是说，这可能会促使央行行长们达成共识，承认价格限制将伴随我们至少几个月。这将更符合美国和欧洲大公司的报告，因为他们预计未来几个月将提高价格。

欧洲央行能做什么？

欧洲的经济增长仍然低迷。长期以来，欧洲央行一直在努力提高通胀。即使在复苏期间，经济增长也一直乏善可陈。

一般来说，这会给欧洲央行留下很大的空间，不仅可以保持低利率，而且可以长时间维持量化宽松。

因此，在预期欧洲央行成员将有很多话要说的情况下，市场将密切关注他们是否对通胀发表了任何看法。然后市场可能会提高对紧急资产购买计划何时结束的预期，并加强欧元。

否则，除非拉加德在会后新闻发布会上说一些出人意料的事情，否则随着我们接近年底，欧元可能会走低。

以下是原文：

With most central banks in the world “normalizing” their policy, and some moving to raise rates somewhat dramatically, the ECB is in a unique position.

While there is a lot going on, and plenty of things for ECB members to talk about, there isn’t much for them to do. So, tomorrow’s ECB policy meeting could be a non-event, in terms of an immediate reaction in the markets.

That doesn’t mean that it isn’t important. In fact, analysts will be scrutinizing the views of the different members to get a better understanding of where things could be going. Specifically, if there is reason to reassess when the ECB might start adjusting its policy.

Current estimates are that the ECB will keep its asset purchase program going well into next year. Therefore, this isn’t a major concern yet.

What is normal, anyway?

Unlike the Fed or the BOE, the ECB was already in easing mode before the covid crisis hit.

Interest rates were already negative, and there was already an asset purchase program in place. This makes the ECB a lot more similar to the BOJ compared to other large central banks.

Returning to pre-covid “normal” for the ECB then implies no rate hikes and only a reduction in quantitative easing.

That doesn’t mean that a “taper” by the ECB wouldn’t have an impact on the markets. Nonetheless, traders are facing a different reality when it comes to monetary policy on the European continent.

What should we look out for

Although not having as many problems as the UK and the US, Europe hasn’t been immune to supply and logistics issues.

Prices are creeping higher, even if they are not threatening to change monetary policy yet. Still, they have become enough of an issue for at least ECB Chief Lagarde to comment on.

The consensus among ECB policy members seems to be that inflation will be “transitory” as always. But now authorities in the US are starting to recognize that inflation isn’t transitory.

That said, this might move the consensus among central bankers to acknowledge that price constraints will be with us for at least several months. That would be more in line with the reports from major corporations both in the US and in Europe as they expect to raise prices in the coming months.

What can the ECB do?

Economic growth in Europe has remained sluggish. And the ECB has struggled for a long time to get inflation up. Even during the recovery, economic growth has been lackluster.

Generally, this would leave the ECB with a lot of room to keep not just interest rates low, but maintain quantitative easing for a long time.

So, with the expectation that ECB members will have a lot to say, the market will be attentive to see if they say anything about inflation. Then the market could move up its expectations for when the emergency asset purchase program might end, and strengthen the euro.

Otherwise, unless Lagarde says something unexpected at the post-meeting presser, the euro could find itself sliding lower as we move towards the end of the year.