EUR/SEK: SCOPE FOR A MOVE TO 10.80 ON A 6-MONTH VIEW – RABOBANK

The EUR/SEK pair is falling on Monday for the fifth consecutive day, trading at 11.30, the lowest level in a week. Analysts at Rabobank, see the Swedish Krona as vulnerable in the short term but they see it improve over the medium term. They forecast EUR/SEK at 10.80 on a six-month perspective. 

Key quotes: 

“Reflecting the weakness of the economy, the SEK was the weakest performing G10 currency in 2022.  Sweden’s proximity to Russia was also likely a factor weighing on the SEK in early 2022. In the year to date, it has pulled back a little ground vs the EUR but has remained on the back foot vs. the EUR, reflecting the hawkishness of the ECB.”

“The weakness of the SEK has recently sparked market talk regarding FX intervention risks, though we view this as unlikely at this stage.”

“EUR/SEK has recently tested its 2020 high in the 11.42 region.  The 2009 high stands around EUR/SEK11.79.  In the near-term the SEK remain vulnerable.  However, expectations that growth will be supported in 2024 by a still robust labour market and a recovery in the housing market suggests an improved outlook for the SEK into year end.  We see scope for a move to EUR/SEK10.80 on a 6-month view.”