Banxico will announce its latest rate decision on Thursday, June 22. Economists at Rabobank analyze MXN's outlook ahead of the meeting.

No change to the 11.25% policy rate

We foresee no-change in the 11.25% policy rate and expect the decision to be unanimous.

Our base case remains that rates will stay on hold at 10.25% into 2024, but the risk is skewed to further tightening.

We are now testing the 17 handle on the downside. Our base case is that this level does break, and a confirmed close below there will set up a test of 16.40.