USD/MXN: PESO TO REMAIN AT HIGH LEVELS FOR THE TIME BEING – COMMERZBANK

Banxico's wait-and-see stance suggests continued MXN strength, economists at Commerzbank report.

Banxico is unlikely to be in a hurry to cut rates

When will the Mexican central bank (Banxico) start cutting interest rates? A few hours before the rate decision, the bi-weekly inflation data will provide insight into the current inflation dynamics. The more pronounced the decline in the stubbornly high core inflation rate, the more the market may hope for a first cautious signal regarding the start of a rate cut in the coming months and trade the peso more cautiously accordingly. However, we expect such hopes to be dashed. 

With core inflation continuing to decline slowly and the Fed keeping the prospect of further rate hikes on the table, we believe that Banxico is unlikely to be in a hurry to cut rates, especially as the growth outlook has recently improved. 

We expect Banxico to keep its cards close to its chest for the time being, and to maintain its wait-and-see stance as well as its key rate. Given the attractive real interest rate, this paves the way for the MXN to remain at high levels for the time being.