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Economists at MUFG Bank expect the Chinese Yuan to remain under downside pressure in the near term. However, CNY is set to recover in the medium term.
On the expectation of diverging monetary policy between the Fed and PBOC in the near term, with further rate cuts from the PBOC over in the coming months amid the market’s expectation of another 25 bps hike from the Fed, this potential widening of negative yield spreads with the US could continue to place downward pressure on the CNY in the near term. Yet once more measurable and concrete stimulus policies are rolled out, we expect CNY to rebound against the Dollar.
Should China eventually realize a growth rate of 5.5% for 2023, a marginal improvement in the yield spread, better relative GDP growth rate, and improving sentiment will be the factors in driving CNY’s appreciation in the medium term.
We expect USD/CNY to drop back to the 6.8000 level by the end of this year
风险提示：本文所述仅代表作者个人观点，不代表 Followme 的官方立场。Followme 不对内容的准确性、完整性或可靠性作出任何保证，对于基于该内容所采取的任何行为，不承担任何责任，除非另有书面明确说明。
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