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EUR/USD is now close to where it was at the start of the COVID pandemic. Economists at Société Générale analyze the pair’s outlook.
What seems clear is that at this point, major currencies (and EUR/USD in particular) are very sensitive to changes in short-term rate differentials, probably because there is so much uncertainty around the bigger picture.
We expect the gap between ECB and Fed rates to continue narrowing in the second half of this year and into 2024, and the 1-year rate differential seems set to narrow further than it did in 2020 – and it dragged EUR/USD above 1.20 that time.
Even if we see rate convergence, it seems unlikely a new major Euro uptrend will start without stronger growth.
风险提示：本文所述仅代表作者个人观点，不代表 Followme 的官方立场。Followme 不对内容的准确性、完整性或可靠性作出任何保证，对于基于该内容所采取的任何行为，不承担任何责任，除非另有书面明确说明。
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