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Economists at the Bank of America expect moderate USD softness with strong productivity growth not factored into the USD outlook.
The current rapid technological progress, especially the advent of AI applications and chatbots, parallels the tech boom of the mid-90s. This previous era of technological advancement led to significant productivity growth and considerable USD strength.
Our base case scenario envisages moderate USD softness through the end of next year, with no strong productivity growth incorporated in the USD outlook. Despite optimism that technological progress will result in higher productivity, we foresee the US remaining in a softer growth mode for the medium term. This implies a EUR/USD that is around the 1.15 level by the end of next year, eventually moving towards fair value in the 1.20's.
风险提示:本文所述仅代表作者个人观点,不代表 Followme 的官方立场。Followme 不对内容的准确性、完整性或可靠性作出任何保证,对于基于该内容所采取的任何行为,不承担任何责任,除非另有书面明确说明。
