UR/PLN has reached and fallen below Commerzbank’s end-2023 target of 4.45. The bank updates its EUR/PLN forecasts.
Euro to remain strong through 2023, but weaken once again during 2024
We forecast the Euro to remain strong through 2023, but weaken once again during 2024. Given Zloty’s high-beta relationship to the Euro, we see EUR/PLN rising again towards 4.75 as inflation disappoints once again in 2024.
Our base case remains that inflation will moderate noticeably over the coming quarters, but not converge fully to target, hence we see 2024 as a potential Zloty-negative period.
Source: Commerzbank Research
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