The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) published the Minutes of its July monetary policy meeting on Tuesday, highlighting that the “board agreed some further tightening may be required,” adding that “they would reconsider at August meeting.”
Additional takeaways
Board considered holding rates steady or hiking by 25 bps
Strong case for both, but board judged arguments for holding steady were stronger
Board agreed some further tightening may be required, would reconsider at august meeting
Current stance of monetary policy was "clearly restrictive", and would become more so
Board discussed risks economy, consumption could slow more than expected
Noted squeeze on household finances, risk unemployment could rise more than needed
Board noted inverted yield curve pointed to tighter conditions, slowing growth
Also risks with waiting too long for inflation to return to target
Inflation proving sticky in other countries, australian rates still lower than many others
Labour market very tight, weak productivity adding to labour costs
While domestic inflation had eased, service inflation still high along with rents, energy, food
Annual wage growth seen rising to 4% in q3, following fair work award
Economy had slowed considerably, q2 gdp growth seen around 0.2% q/q
Consumer spending seen weak in q2, rebound in housing market to support consumption
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