Current trend

The EUR/USD pair shows ambiguous dynamics: at the moment, the quotes fell to the 1.0918 area but now they have recovered to 1.0930 in anticipation of the US macroeconomic statistics.

At 14:30 (GMT 2), nonfarm payrolls will be published, which is likely to be 200.0K against 209.0K earlier. If the federal data exceeds forecasts, the US Federal Reserve officials may continue tightening the monetary policy, as the labor market confirms its resilience, acting, in turn, as a catalyst for a further decline in the EUR/USD pair to 1.0655. A significant downward deviation of the indicator will put pressure on the dollar, and then the quotes may continue the uptrend with the target at 1.1260.

Experts suggest that the US regulator has completed the cycle of raising interest rates and will now keep it at 5.50% for a long time. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Fed Watch Instrument, at the next meeting, officials will leave the indicator unchanged with a probability of 82.5%. In turn, inflation in the EU exceeds the US one, amounting to 5.3% against 3.0%, and the European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to maintain its “hawkish” rhetoric, which will support the euro, and then the EUR/USD pair may reach level 1.1260 in the medium term.

Support and resistance

The long-term trend is directed upwards, and now, the trading instrument is developing a correction, within which it has reached the support level of 1.0930, after the breakdown of which the decline will continue to 1.0655, and if it is held, the price may grow to 1.1260.

The medium-term trend is downward with the target at zone 2 (1.0891–1.0872), after reaching which, it is better to fix short positions, as a medium-term correction may develop. The key resistance of the range is shifting to the levels of 1.1123–1.1104, after reaching which short positions with the first target at this week’s low in the 1.0915 area are relevant.

Resistance levels: 1.1260, 1.1475.

Support levels: 1.0930, 1.0655.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened from 1.0930 with the target at 1.1260 and stop loss around 1.0830. Implementation period: 9–12 days.

Short positions may be opened below 1.0830 with the target at 1.0655 and stop loss around 1.0910.