The BoJ does not want to repeat old mistakes but has to take fiscal constraints into account. Economists at Commerzbank analyze JPY outlook.
The BoJ does not want to repeat old mistakes but has to take fiscal constraints into account. Economists at Commerzbank analyze JPY outlook.
Risks on both sides for the Japanese currency
It may be necessary to allow moderately higher JGB yields. The changes in yield curve control can be interpreted as first steps in this direction.
If inflation can eventually be brought back to the 2% target with moderately higher yields, this may end up being JPY positive. Then Yen's yield disadvantage will be less significant (especially if other central banks cut their rates).
However, real yields cannot be too high for a JPY positive outcome. Otherwise, fiscal and/or inflation problems and significant JPY weakness loom.
We still think that a positive outcome for the JPY is likely, but see risks on both sides for the Japanese currency
It may be necessary to allow moderately higher JGB yields. The changes in yield curve control can be interpreted as first steps in this direction.
If inflation can eventually be brought back to the 2% target with moderately higher yields, this may end up being JPY positive. Then Yen's yield disadvantage will be less significant (especially if other central banks cut their rates).
However, real yields cannot be too high for a JPY positive outcome. Otherwise, fiscal and/or inflation problems and significant JPY weakness loom.
We still think that a positive outcome for the JPY is likely, but see risks on both sides for the Japanese currency
风险提示：本文所述仅代表作者个人观点，不代表 Followme 的官方立场。Followme 不对内容的准确性、完整性或可靠性作出任何保证，对于基于该内容所采取的任何行为，不承担任何责任，除非另有书面明确说明。
暂无评论，立马抢沙发