EUR/USD

The European currency is being corrected after an attempt to grow at the end of last week, when the US dollar positions came under pressure after the publication of a report on the labor market. At the moment, the EUR/USD pair is trying to consolidate below 1.1000, waiting for new drivers to appear on the market, while the macroeconomic calendar is relatively empty at the beginning of the week, and today only the June data from Germany on Industrial Production will attract investors' attention, where the value is forecast to decline by 0.4% after -0.2% in May. The report on the US labor market released on Friday recorded the emergence of only 187.0 thousand new jobs outside the agricultural sector after an increase of 185.0 thousand in the previous month. In the meantime, the Average Hourly Earnings in July remained at the same level of 0.4% MoM and 4.4% YoY, while the market expected a slight slowdown of 0.3% MoM and 4.2% YoY, respectively, and the Unemployment Rate corrected from 3.6% to 3.5%. In turn, Friday's statistics did not support the single currency of the eurozone: in June, Retail Sales fell by 0.3% after rising by 0.6% earlier, despite the fact that analysts expected the positive dynamics to remain at the level of 0.2%. In annual terms, the indicator corrected from -2.4% to -1.4%, while the forecast was -1.7%.

GBP/USD

The pound shows mixed trading, consolidating near 1.2730 against the background of the recovery of the US currency after the decline on Thursday and Friday. The July report on the US labor market reflected an increase in the Nonfarm Payrolls by only 187.0 thousand after correcting by 185.0 thousand last month, while analysts expected 200.0 thousand. At the same time, the document noted a high rate of increase in the Average Hourly Earnings (0.4% on a monthly basis and 4.4% on an annual basis), as well as a decrease in the Unemployment Rate in July from 3.6% to 3.5%. It is worth noting that the July data on the US labor market practically did not change the mood of experts regarding the future prospects for monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve. As before, the markets are confident that the regulator will try not to change the level of interest rates until the end of this year, despite the fact that at their last meeting, officials indicated their readiness for new adjustments to the value if necessary. The focus of British investors on Monday is the speech of the representative of the Bank of England Huw Pill, as well as the publication of the July Housing Price Index from Halifax. On Friday, traders will turn their attention to updated data on the dynamics of the UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter, as well as the June data on Industrial Production, where forecasts suggest a decrease in volumes of 2.1% YoY after -2.3% in the previous month, but on a monthly basis, only a -0.1% correction is expected after a 0.6% contraction in May.

NZD/USD

The New Zealand dollar shows moderate growth in the NZD/USD pair, developing a weak upward momentum around 0.6100, formed at the end of last week, when the instrument managed to retreat from the local lows of June 30. Investors are evaluating Friday's US labor market report, which recorded an increase of about 187.0 thousand Nonfarm Payrolls, which was below the expected 200.0 thousand, while the Average Hourly Earnings corrected another 0.4% on a monthly basis contrary to forecasts for a slowdown in the indicator to 0.3%, and the Unemployment Rate in July fell to a new record low of 3.5%. The national currency reacted to the publication of statistics with a moderate decrease, after which, however, it managed to restore its positions and win back most of the losses. However, traders were somewhat disappointed by the continuing tension in the labor market against the background of the likely completion of the US Federal Reserve's tightening monetary policy cycle. Thus, until the end of the year, the interest rate is likely to be kept at the current level. 

USD/JPY

The US currency is gaining in value, recovering from a rather active decline at the end of last week, when the USD/JPY pair retreated from local highs of July 7. At the moment, the instrument is testing the level of 142.10 for a breakout, and the US dollar is regaining lost ground after the publication of the July report on the labor market: the Average Hourly Earnings remained at the same levels of 0.4% MoM and 4.4% YoY, while analysts counted on the slowdown to 0.3% and 4.2%, respectively. However, as the main scenario at the moment, analysts are considering the possibility of maintaining the current monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve unchanged until the end of the year. Macroeconomic data released today in Japan did not support the yen: the Coincident Index in June showed an increase from 114.3 points to 115.2 points, while the Leading Economic Index for the same period fell from 109.2 points to 108.9 points.

XAU/USD

Quotes of the XAU/USD pair are correcting around 1936.97 after an uncertain attempt to resume the upward movement last Friday, when the US currency came under pressure after the publication of the July report on the labor market. According to the data presented, the Average Hourly Earnings growth rate remained unchanged at 0.4% MoM and 4.4% YoY, which was above market expectations of 0.3% and 4.2%, respectively, while as the Unemployment Rate fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, once again updating record lows. At the same time, the American economy created only 187.0 thousand new jobs outside the agricultural sector, which also turned out to be lower than analysts' preliminary estimates of 200.0 thousand. Statistics on the labor market once again confirmed the opinion of experts about the future easing of monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve; however, so far only maintaining the current level of the interest rate is discussed, while its possible reduction may occur no earlier than the beginning of next year. Moreover, the country's monetary authorities announced their readiness to adjust the rate if necessary, but at the moment the level of consumer prices in the US is assessed as quite acceptable. Meanwhile, according to the latest report from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), last week the number of net speculative positions in gold fell to 164.9 thousand compared to 173.6 thousand earlier, and the balance of swap dealers is 90.411 thousand for the "bulls" against 250.580 thousand for the "bears". Last week, sellers increased the number of contracts by 0.677 thousand, and buyers increased it by 3.818 thousand, confirming the preservation of an almost zero balance, which does not allow quotes to start a more active movement.