Current trend

The USD/CHF pair failed to break the 0.8770 level after the publication of mixed data from the US labor market and is now holding around 0.8765. Recall that the report recorded the appearance of only 187.0K new jobs outside the agricultural sector after an increase of 185.0K last month. Meanwhile, the average wage index at the end of July remained at the same values of 0.4% on a monthly basis and 4.4% on an annual basis, while the market expected a slight slowdown of 0.3% and 4.2%, respectively, and the unemployment rate adjusted from 3.6% to 3.5%. 

In turn, the dynamics of the Swiss consumer price index supports the position of the franc: in July, the indicator decreased from 0.1% to -0.1% on a monthly basis and from 1.7% to 1.6% on an annual basis. Nevertheless, bidders are in no hurry to open new deals, waiting for the meeting of the Swiss National Bank on September 21, during which the regulator may raise the interest rate by 25 basis points.

The long-term trend in the USD/CHF pair is downward. After the decline to the support level of 0.8570, a correction began, during which the price reached the resistance area of 0.8833–0.8770. If it is held by sellers, the movement will continue with a target at last month's low of 0.8570. The breakdown of the 0.8570 mark will allow the quotes to fall to the 0.8400 area. If the resistance area 0.8833–0.8770 is broken out, then the correction will intensify with the targets at 0.9003 and 0.9110; the trend boundary runs in the 0.9110 area.

The mid-term trend is downward. The bidders reached the target zone 3 (0.8590–0.8566), after which the price corrected to the area of the key trend resistance 0.8824–0.8799. The zone is held by the "bears", so at the moment short positions in the asset can be considered with a target at the July minimum of 0.8570. To change the mid-term trend to an upward trend, buyers need to break the 0.8824–0.8799 area, and then the 0.9087-0.9060 marks will act as a new target for purchases.

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 0.8770, 0.8833, 0.9003, 0.9110.

Support levels: 0.8570, 0.8400.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from 0.8833 with a target at 0.8630 and stop-loss in the area of 0.8905. Implementation time: 9-12 days.

Long positions can be opened above 0.8905 with a target at 0.9110 and stop-loss at around 0.8810.