EUR/USD

The European currency is being corrected after a rather active decline the day before and during the morning trading is testing the level of 1.0965 for a breakout, waiting for the emergence of new drivers to strengthen the upward movement. Meanwhile, macroeconomic statistics from Europe published the day before did not provide any significant support for quotes: updated data on consumer inflation in Germany in July remained unchanged (0.3% MoM and 6.2% YoY), while the Harmonized CPI consolidated at 0.5% and 6.5%, respectively. The figures are still well above the target levels of the Bundesbank and the European Central Bank (ECB), and therefore the restrictive policy of high interest rates is likely to be maintained. Investors also paid attention to statistics from France: at the end of June, Export volumes slightly decreased from 52.745 billion euros to 52.054 billion euros, and Imports went down from 60.684 billion euros to 58.767 billion euros, which led to a reduction in the trade deficit from -7.939 billion euros to -6.713 billion euros, while analysts expected values at the level of -8.000 billion euros. American investors evaluate the dynamics of the Business Optimism Index from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), which in July showed an increase from 91.0 points to 91.9 points, contrary to forecasts of a decline to 90.6 points, while the Retail Sales index from Redbook rose 0.3% MoM after correcting 0.1% last month.

GBP/USD

The pound is trading in different directions during the morning session on August 9, holding close to 1.2750. The positions of the British currency are trying to recover after a rapid decline the day before, when Retail Sales statistics from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) reflected the strengthening of the negative trend in the market: the indicator added only 1.8%, significantly losing to the preliminary estimates of 3.0% and the June statistics of 4.2%. In the near term, the situation is likely to continue to worsen, with modest sales growth giving way to a contraction in sales as households find it harder to maintain their usual levels of consumption and wage growth fails to keep up with soaring inflation. However, at the moment, investors are in no hurry to open new trading positions, waiting for the publication of macroeconomic statistics from the US and the UK at the end of the week. July data on US consumer inflation will be presented on Thursday, which will help the market correct its expectations regarding the prospects for further tightening of monetary policy by the monetary authorities. Forecasts suggest a possible increase in the indicator from 3.0% to 3.3% on an annualized basis, which is still above the 2.0% target level of the US Federal Reserve. On Friday, the focus of traders will be updated statistics on the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the UK for the second quarter, as well as its June growth rates and dynamics of Industrial Production. Preliminary estimates suggest that the economy of the United Kingdom in June may grow by 0.2% on a monthly basis after declining by 0.1% a month earlier. In terms of Industrial Production, forecasts are more restrained, but an upward trend of 0.1% is also expected, after a 0.6% contraction in May.

NZD/USD

The New Zealand dollar shows an uncertain growth during the Asian session on August 9, trying to win back the losses incurred the day before. At the moment, the NZD/USD pair is testing 0.6070 for a breakout, receiving weak support from macroeconomic statistics from China and New Zealand. Chinese data showed that the Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% MoM in July after falling 0.2% earlier, although analysts expected 0.1%, and in annual terms the value fell by 0.3%, which is only 0.1% better than analysts' forecasts. Manufacturing inflation over the same period corrected 4.4% year-on-year after falling 5.4% in June. Data from New Zealand, in turn, supported the instrument after the publication of forecasts of the country's Reserve Bank for the third quarter of this year: the inflation rate, according to officials, will adjust from 2.79% to 2.83%. In turn, a more confident strengthening of the positions of the NZD/USD pair was hampered by the statistics on Electronic Card Retail Sales from New Zealand: in July, the dynamics slowed down sharply from 4.2% to 2.2% YoY, while analysts expected an increase to 9.8%, and on a monthly basis, the indicator fixed at 0.0% after rising by 0.9% previously. In the near future, American investors expect the publication of key macroeconomic statistics on the dynamics of consumer inflation in July. The data will be released on Thursday, August 10, and are expected to point to a resumption of growth from 3.0% to 3.3%.

USD/JPY

The US currency is correcting around 143.12 after a two-day growth at the beginning of the week, when the USD/JPY pair managed to renew local highs from August 3. Market activity remains low as market participants await the publication of macroeconomic statistics from the US on consumer and industrial inflation. Forecasts suggest a slight increase in the Consumer Price Index from 3.0% to 3.3% in annual terms, while the Producer Price Index may correct more significantly, from 0.1% to 0.7%. In addition, at the end of the week, investors will follow the comments of the US Federal Reserve representatives, in particular, Patrick Harker and Rafael Bostic. Traders fear that a resumption of growth in consumer prices could act as a catalyst to prolong the "hawkish" monetary policy and lead to another increase in interest rates this year. In July, officials did not rule out the possibility of new adjustments, bringing the figure to 5.5%. Meanwhile, macroeconomic statistics from Japan, presented the day before, did not support the yen: Household Spending fell 4.2% YoY in June after falling 4.0% earlier, while Bank Lending slowed from 3.1% YoY to 2.9% last month, worse than the expected 3.1%. In turn, the current account balance of Japan in June showed positive dynamics for the fifth month in a row: the surplus amounted to 1.509 trillion yen, exceeding the 1.395 trillion yen expected by experts and improving the figure for the same period last year by 1.0 trillion yen.

XAU/USD

Gold prices are recovering after a systematic decline at the beginning of the week, when quotes returned to local lows from July 10. At the moment, the XAU/USD pair is testing 1930.00, receiving support from Chinese macroeconomic statistics: an increase in the Consumer Price Index by 0.2% was recorded in July after reducing by the same amount last month, although analysts' forecasts suggested a decrease by 0.1%, and in annual terms there was a correction of -0.3%, which is only 0.1% better than market forecasts. The day before, investors, on the contrary, were disappointed by weak statistics from China on the dynamics of Exports and Imports. Exports in July fell by 14.5% year on year after -12.4% last month, although analysts expected a value of -12.5%, while Imports lost 12.4% after falling by 6.8% earlier: the real dynamics turned out to be worse than forecasts by more than two times.