In July, USD/INR fluctuated within a narrow range. Economists at Mizuho Bank analyze the pair’s medium to long-term outlook.
Trend in USD/INR unlikely to change substantially
From a medium to long-term perspective, there will be stronger pressure to weaken the USD and to strengthen the currencies of emerging countries, including the Indian Rupee, following the end of the policy interest rate hikes and the beginning of policy interest rate cuts in the US, which are expected to be next year or later.
However, the trend in USD/INR is not likely to change substantially, as the central bank of India is expected to continue intervening in the foreign exchange market when the exchange rate falls, while some market participants are expected to sell the Indian rupee based on actual demand. Therefore, the Indian Rupee is forecast to start depreciating slowly against the US Dollar in the times ahead
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