NATURAL GAS PRICE EXTENDS LOSSES AS FOMC MINUTES LEAVE HAWKISH TONE

Natural Gas slides lower on the back of fears for less demand. 

The US Dollar is firmly stronger after FOMC minutes reveal the Fed is still not happy with current inflation levels. 

The overall technical picture still shows a longer-term ascending trend channel. 

Natural Gas price declines more than 8% since its opening price on Tuesday with traders pencilling in a weaker demand than currently foreseen. Talks in Australia on wage disputes are still under way and could still bring a compromise soon, an outcome that would lift the current strike in place. Meanwhile, less demand is foreseen locally in the US as the FOMC minutes showed that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is not happy yet with where inflation is and many policy makers consider that more needs to be done. 

A firmly stronger US Dollar weighs on the Natural Gas price as well, making it a double whammy of weaker demand and a stronger Greenback. With the FOMC minutes showing that the Fed wants to do more by either additional interest-rate hikes or keeping current levels steady for longer, a slump in demand could start to trickle into Natural Gas prices. Weaker demand against steady supply means lower prices. 

At the time of writing, Natural Gas is trading at $2.719 per MMBtu.  

Natural Gas news and market movers

Traders will be looking forward to the weekly Gas Storage Changes at 14:30 GMT. The US Energy Information Administration will publish the change from the previous 29B. Expectations are for a rise to 34B, which could put more pressure to the downside for Natural Gas prices. 

There is a big divergence between the European and US gas prices. Europe saw a firm spike after headlines that Australian unions went on strike and halted gas deliveries to Europe. 

In some good news for Europe,  gas storages in the continent are nearly full. The German stockpile is up to 92%. 

Current weather projections point to an elevated possibility of a cold winter in Europe, which would underpin current gas price levels even as storages are already almost full. 

Gas company ADNOC gas signed a deal with Japan Petroleum Exploration (JAPEX) for a 5-year LNG supply pact worth between $450M and $550M. 

Tropical storm Hilary is on its way to the Baja California peninsula and will be closely monitored as it will grow into a hurricane by Friday. 

Latest FOMC minutes show that the US Federal Reserve is still not happy with where or how inflation is behaving. This could mean that policy makers will either keep interest rates steady for longer or will perform one or two more hikes. 

Natural Gas Technical Analysis: longer-term uptrend still intact

Natural Gas has received a beating these past few trading days on Tuesday and Wednesday. With an overall 8% decline since its opening price on Tuesday, it becomes clear that the equilibrium between supply and demand is very fragile and the slightest shift on any side moves the needle in any direction. In this case, the FOMC minutes tripped the markets, which are erasing potential future demand as elevated rates could cap or diminish the usage of Natural Gas. 

On the upside, $3 is still the level to watch as the overall ascending trend channel since April is being well respected. Should Natural Gas prices be able to recover, look for a close above $2.935, the high of Tuesday, in order to confirm that demand is picking up again. More upside towards $3 and $3.065 (high of August 9) would be targets or levels to watch. 

On the downside, the trend channel is doing its work with a 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2.639, which is underpinning the price. In case more downside pressure builds, look for $2.579, which is the lower trend line of the trend channel