The world’s two most prominent central bankers are both speaking at Jackson Hole today. ECB President Christine Lagarde has to deal with a worsening economic outlook in the Eurozone, but economists at ING suspect she will stick to data dependency and a hawkish tone.
EUR/USD can rebound
Our perception is that Lagarde is unhappy with the market's recent scale-down of rate expectations in the Eurozone (a September hike is only 40% priced in), and she may prefer to keep overlooking some evidence of worsening growth and stick with a pure data-dependent approach. Ultimately, if inflation surprises on the upside, the chances of a hike in September would rise quite significantly in our view, especially given the deteriorating growth outlook, which means that could be the ECB’s last chance to raise rates.
We think there is room for some re-tightening after Lagarde’s speech today, and for EUR/USD to enjoy a relief rally after the break below 1.0800 saw more bearish momentum building overnight.
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