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The US Dollar has rallied about 2% since the last FOMC meeting in September. Economists at ING are deferring their call for a Dollar sell-off this year.
Even though November and December are seasonally weak months for the Dollar, it is hard to call a turn in the USD trend before year-end.
US data is showing no signs of turning just yet. For that reason, it seems hard for the market to completely price out the risk of one last Fed hike before year-end. This should keep short-dated US yields anchored above 5% and prevent the Dollar from falling too far during any corrections.
Looking into 2024, our call for US economic and rate convergence with stagnant growth elsewhere in the world should mean the Dollar turns lower
风险提示：本文所述仅代表作者个人观点，不代表 Followme 的官方立场。Followme 不对内容的准确性、完整性或可靠性作出任何保证，对于基于该内容所采取的任何行为，不承担任何责任，除非另有书面明确说明。
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