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The second-best performing currency after the US Dollar (USD) of 2024 is the Pound Sterling (GBP). Economists at ING analyze the GBP outlook.
On Tuesday, jobs data for January is released, and Wednesday sees the CPI report and Thursday's GDP data. We see both wage growth and services inflation remaining sticky in the first quarter, meaning that the Bank of England will have no rush to turn to a more dovish communication in the near future.
Markets are expecting the BoE to move with a delay (in August) compared to the ECB’s and Fed’s easing cycles. We agree, but also see 100 bps (vs 80 bps priced in) of cuts by year-end.
Some GBP weakness against the EUR down the road is therefore our base case, but the short-term outlook remains quite constructive for Sterling.
风险提示：本文所述仅代表作者个人观点，不代表 Followme 的官方立场。Followme 不对内容的准确性、完整性或可靠性作出任何保证，对于基于该内容所采取的任何行为，不承担任何责任，除非另有书面明确说明。
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