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The US Dollar (USD) has been the clear outperformer so far this year. Economists at Danske Bank maintain their strategic case for a lower EUR/USD in the medium term.
We maintain the strategic case for a lower EUR/USD based on the relative terms of trade, real rates, and relative unit labour costs. Hence, we expect a downward trajectory over the course of the year. In the near term, we like to sell the cross on rallies.
Although our forecast for the Fed and the ECB suggests upside risk to EUR/USD in H1, we stress that the broader market pricing in G10, which we believe is too aggressive for cuts, could prove to be more crucial for EUR/USD.
风险提示：本文所述仅代表作者个人观点，不代表 Followme 的官方立场。Followme 不对内容的准确性、完整性或可靠性作出任何保证，对于基于该内容所采取的任何行为，不承担任何责任，除非另有书面明确说明。
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