Current trend

Last week, the quotes of the NZD/USD pair reached the resistance level of 0.6205, which market participants could not break through, and today the instrument is declining again to the area of 0.6168 after the publication of negative economic statistics.

The New Zealand core retail sales index in Q4 2023 amounted to -1.7%, being significantly lower than both the forecast of -0.1% and the previous value of 0.4%, and retail sales for the same period fell by 1.9% with a forecast of -0.2% and the previous value of -0.8%, confirming the slowdown in the national economy and reducing the attractiveness of the New Zealand dollar.

The long-term trend is upward. As part of the growth from the 0.6050 support level, the instrument reached 0.6205, which was held by sellers, as a result of which a downward correction began. Today, the price is approaching the nearest support level of 0.6155; while holding it, one may open long positions with the target of 0.6262. If the 0.6155 mark is broken down, the downward movement may intensify to the area of 0.6050.

The medium-term trend, however, remains downward. The target of the decline is target zone 3 (0.5949–0.5935). Last week, as part of an upward correction, the instrument reached the key trend resistance of 0.6192–0.6178, which was held by sellers. Today, the NZD/USD pair is declining and trading below the resistance level, therefore, one can consider selling with the target of 0.6045. At the breakdown of the 0.6192–0.6178 zone, the upward movement will strengthen to the area of 0.6332–0.6318.

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 0.6205, 0.6262.

Support levels: 0.6155, 0.6050.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from the level of 0.6155 with the target of 0.6262 and stop-loss around 0.6119. Implementation time: 9–12 days.

Short positions can be opened below 0.6119 with the target of 0.6050 and stop-loss around 0.6150.