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The FOMC has kept rates on hold since its last rate hike in July. Economists at ABN Amro still expect the Fed to start cutting rates from June.
We expect the Fed to start cutting rates in June, with the risk somewhat tilted to earlier cuts.
Even with rate cuts starting next year, monetary policy is expected to remain restrictive throughout 2024 and even into 2025.
We expect the upper bound of the fed funds rate to reach 4.25% by end-2024, and 3% by mid-2025.
The Fed also looks set to wind down its quantitative tightening somewhat sooner than previously expected, though this will be well-telegraphed and gradual.
风险提示：本文所述仅代表作者个人观点，不代表 Followme 的官方立场。Followme 不对内容的准确性、完整性或可靠性作出任何保证，对于基于该内容所采取的任何行为，不承担任何责任，除非另有书面明确说明。
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