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The US Dollar Index (DXY) is down modestly on the session so far but is heading for a mild gain on the week. Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, analyzes Greenback’s outlook.
US core PCE data was in line with market forecasts of a 0.4% MoM gain. With a firmer number largely discounted by markets, the on-consensus outcome was treated more like a dovish surprise. The 3m annualized reading did edge up modestly (2.2%, from 2.1%) but holding close to 2% will likely reassure policymakers that underlying pressures are abating slowly. A few more months of data are needed to persuade the Fed that prices are moving sustainably towards 2%.
The index remains relatively ‘rich’ versus spread-based fair value, according to my estimate at least. That still rather suggests to me that the USD may find it hard to advance significantly, without more support from firmer data and/or higher yields at this point.
风险提示：本文所述仅代表作者个人观点，不代表 Followme 的官方立场。Followme 不对内容的准确性、完整性或可靠性作出任何保证，对于基于该内容所采取的任何行为，不承担任何责任，除非另有书面明确说明。
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