Daily Digest Market Movers: Indian Rupee remains vulnerable amid the global factors

• The recent HSBC Services PMI data showed the second-weakest cost pressures in the sector since August 2020 and the slowest pace increase in selling charges for two years.
• According to the global rating agency Moody’s, India’s 2024 GDP growth forecast has been raised to 6.8% from the earlier estimate of 6.1% in November 2023.
• The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) GDP growth estimate for FY24 is 7%, while the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) forecast is 6.7%.
• The US ISM Services PMI slipped to 52.6 in February from 53.4 in January, weaker than the expectation of 53.0. 
• The New Orders Index improved to 56.1 from 55.0 in the previous reading. The Employment Index dropped to 48.0 versus 50.5 prior, and the Prices Paid Index declined to 58.6 from 64.0 in the previous reading. 

Technical Analysis: Indian Rupee remains confined within a longer-term range

Indian Rupee weakens on the day. USD/INR extends the range play around 82.65-83.15, a multi-month-old descending trend channel since December 8, 2023. 

The bearish outlook of USD/INR remains intact as the pair is below the 100-day Exponential Moving Average on the daily chart. It’s worth noting that the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) confirms the bearish momentum as it lies below the 50.0 midlines, which supports the sellers for the time being. 

A decisive break above the crucial resistance at 83.00, portraying the 100-day EMA and a psychological round figure, USD/INR might climb to the next upside targets at the upper boundary of the descending trend channel at 83.15. Further north, the additional upside filter to watch is a high of January 2 at 83.35, en route to 84.00. 

On the downside, the initial support level is seen at the lower limit of the descending trend channel at 82.65. Any follow-through selling might set its sights on the bearish targets at a low of August 23 at 82.45, and finally a low of June 1 at 82.25.