Current trend

The USD/CHF pair, after testing 0.8792, is declining, trading around 0.8767 against negative macroeconomic data.

Yesterday, the February consumer confidence index from the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), which assesses household spending and is part of economic activity, was published: the indicator decreased from –41.1 points to –42.3 points, significantly lower than the forecast of –36.0 point. In addition, the growth rate of consumer expectations in February reached its low since October 2021 at 1.2% YoY, compared to 1.3% previously. Given these statistics, Swiss National Bank (SNB) officials may keep interest rates at 1.75% at their meeting on March 21, which will put pressure on the franc.

The long-term trend remains upward: the price corrected downwards and returned to the resistance level of 0.8792 last week, then retested this level and continued to decline toward the support level of 0.8714. If it is overcome, the next target will be 0.8565. To resume growth, the quotes need to consolidate above 0.8792, and then long positions with the target at 0.8899 are relevant.

The medium-term trend is upward: after renewing the February high, the asset began a downward correction to the area of key trend support 0.8664–0.8643, after testing which long positions with the target at 0.8879 are relevant. After a breakout, the next growth target will be zone 2 (0.9002–0.8979).

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 0.8792, 0.8899, 0.9103.

Support levels: 0.8714, 0.8565, 0.8388.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened from 0.8792 with the target at 0.8715 and stop loss 0.8815. Implementation time: 9–12 days.

Long positions may be opened above 0.8815 with the target at 0.8899 and stop loss 0.8777.