Current trend

Against the positive dynamics of the American dollar, the USD/CHF pair is trading at 0.9129, without any support from Swiss neutral macroeconomic statistics.

In March, the producer price index increased by 0.1% to 106.9 points but fell by 2.1% compared to the same period last year. The drivers of the local increase were prices for petroleum products, clothing, metals, and semi-finished products, with oil, natural gas, and pharmaceutical products falling the most. This week, no more Swiss data that could affect the asset’s dynamics is expected.

The American dollar is trading at 106.10 in the USDX for the first time since November. Investors reacted positively to a 1.1% rise in the core retail sales index in March, beating both the 0.5% expected by analysts and the 0.6% in February. The increase in retail sales was 0.7% MoM, higher than the 0.4% forecast but slightly behind the 0.9% increase in February. The figure added 4.02% YoY, which exceeds last year’s increase of 2.11%.

Today at 19:15 (GMT 2), the head of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, will speak. The official can share his vision of the current situation in the national economy against ongoing geopolitical tensions and hint at further actions of the regulator in the field of monetary policy. However, investors do not expect to hear rhetoric signaling an imminent interest rate reduction.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, the trading instrument is correcting within the ascending channel 0.9240–0.9000, approaching the October high of 0.9250.

Technical indicators are strengthening the buy signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are moving away from the signal line, and the AO histogram is forming ascending bars in the buy zone.

Resistance levels: 0.9153, 0.9243.

Support levels: 0.9095, 0.9000.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after the price rises and consolidates above 0.9153, with the target at 0.9243. Stop loss – 0.9100. Implementation period: 7 days or more.

Short positions may be opened after the price declines and consolidates below 0.9095, with the target at 0.9000. Stop loss – 0.9140.