Current trend

The XAU/USD pair is showing a fairly active decline, developing the "bearish" impetus formed the day before. Quotes are testing the level of 2310.00 for a breakdown, updating local lows from April 5. Their downward dynamics are facilitated by some stabilization of the situation in the Middle East, as well as the fact that the US Federal Reserve is not likely to change monetary policy until September or even longer. Some analysts suggest that the regulator may decide to reduce borrowing costs only at the end of 2024.

On Thursday at 14:30 (GMT 2) the US will publish data on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter: the national economy is projected to slow down from 3.4% to 2.5%. On Friday, the market will receive key statistics for the US Federal Reserve on Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index, which may demonstrate a decrease in the Core indicator in March from 2.8% to 2.6%, which will mean a further weakening of inflationary pressure in the country.

Meanwhile, the gold contract market is experiencing growth. According to the latest report from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), last week the number of net speculative positions in the precious metal decreased to 201.9 thousand from 202.4 thousand a week earlier, and the balance in positions secured by real money amounted to 198.276 thousand for the "bulls" against 25.415 thousand for the "bears". Last week, buyers reduced the number of contracts by 10.357 thousand, and sellers - by 4.078 thousand, which indicates a new stage of position fixation.

Support and resistance

On the D1 chart Bollinger Bands are trying to reverse horizontally. The price range is narrowing, reflecting the emergence of ambiguous dynamics of trading in the short term. MACD is going down preserving a stable sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic shows similar dynamics, being located near its lows, signaling the risks of gold being oversold in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 2320.00, 2336.50, 2353.79, 2375.00.

Support levels: 2300.00, 2285.00, 2265.52, 2245.00.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened after a breakdown of 2300.00 with the target at 2265.52. Stop-loss — 2320.00. Implementation time: 1-2 days.

A rebound from 2300.00 as from support followed by a breakout of 2320.00 may become a signal for opening new long positions with the target at 2360.00. Stop-loss — 2300.00.