Current trend

After the publication of negative macroeconomic data from New Zealand, the NZD/USD pair is declining, approaching the support level of 0.5928.

In April, the business confidence index from the Australian and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ Group) amounted to 14.9 points, below the forecast of 24.0 points and the previous value of 22.9 points. Business conditions in the country worsened, and traders began to sell the New Zealand dollar, which led to a continuation of the long-term downward trend. Last week, prices were supported locally by the foreign trade report. The March exports increased by 6.50B New Zealand dollars compared to 5.79B New Zealand dollars previously, while imports increased by only 5.91B New Zealand dollars, allowing for a trade balance return to surplus and reach 588.0M New Zealand dollars.

The long-term trend remains downward: after a correction to 0.5981 last week, today, the price is testing the support level of 0.5928. After a breakdown, the negative dynamics can reach 0.5860 and renew the October low of 0.5789. In the case of growth and breakout of the resistance area of 0.6005–0.5981, long positions with the target at 0.6069 are relevant.

The medium-term trend is downward: on Monday, the quotes approached the trend line of 0.6006–0.5992 but could not test it and went down. In case of consolidation below the April low of 0.5856, the next target will be zone 4 (0.5809–0.5795). If the asset overcomes the resistance area of 0.6006–0.5992, the medium-term trend will reverse upwards, and long positions with the target in zone 2 (0.6146–0.6132) are relevant.

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 0.5981, 0.6005, 0.6069.

Support levels: 0.5928, 0.5860.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened from 0.5928, with the target at 0.5880 and stop loss 0.5907. Implementation time: 9–12 days.

Short positions may be opened below 0.5907, with the target at 0.5860 and stop loss 0.5928.