Current trend

Against a weakening American dollar and macroeconomic statistics from Australia, the AUD/USD pair is correcting at 0.6574.

In March, exports increased by 0.1% from –3.2% previously, and imports by 4.2%, leading to a correction in the trade balance from 6.591B Australian dollars to 5.024B Australian dollars instead of an expected increase of 7.190B Australian dollars. Today’s data reflected the recovery of the poorest sector of the national economy, the construction market: in April, the volume of investment in real estate rose from 1.2% to 3.8%, and the number of issued housing loans – from 1.6% to 2.8%, exceeding analysts’ forecasts 1.0%. The volume of construction permits adjusted by 1.9% MoM, less than the predicted 3.5%, and by –2.5% compared to preliminary estimates of 5.2% YoY. The market remains under pressure from the high interest rates of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and is still far from last year’s levels.

The American dollar is trading at 105.1 points in USDX. Investors practically did not react to initial jobless claims data, which remained at 208.0K this week, the total claims reached 1.774M, and the average number of claims over four weeks decreased from 213.5K to 210.0K. The Q1 nonfarm productivity increased by 0.3% compared to an increase of 3.5% earlier.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, the trading instrument is rising, approaching the resistance line of the ascending channel with dynamic boundaries of 0.6700–0.6500.

Technical indicators gave a buy signal: fast EMA on the Alligator indicator crossed the signal line upward and began to expand the range of fluctuations, and the AO histogram is growing in the positive zone.

Support levels: 0.6540, 0.6440.

Resistance levels: 0.6600, 0.6680.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after the price rises and consolidates above 0.6600, with the target at 0.6680. Stop loss – 0.6550. Implementation period: 7 days or more.

Short positions may be opened after the price declines and consolidates below 0.6540, with the target at 0.6440. Stop loss – 0.6600.