- Mexico’s economic calendar will feature the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April, estimated at 0.18% MoM, below March’s reading and in the twelve months to the last month, is foreseen climbing from 4.42% to 4.63%.
- Banxico is expected to hold rates unchanged at 11.00%.
- Mexico’s Industrial Production is projected to improve from -0.1% in February to 0.7% MoM. On a yearly basis, IP is foreseen plunging to -2.9% from 3.3% in a previous month.
- US Nonfarm Payrolls missing the figures increased the likelihood that the Fed could begin to ease policy faster than expected. The US economy added just 175K people to the workforce in April, missing estimates, and trailing March’s revised 315K figure.
- Data from the futures market see odds for a quarter percentage point Fed rate cut in September at 95%, versus 55% ahead of last week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision.
- Fed speakers this week are led by Richmond Fed’s Thomas Barkin and New York Fed’s John Williams on Monday. On Tuesday, a scarce economic docket will feature Minnesota Fed’s Neil Kashkari and the RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index.
- Last Wednesday, the Fed decided to keep the fed funds rate unchanged at 5.25%-5.50%. They acknowledged that risks to achieving the Fed’s dual mandate on employment and inflation “moved toward better balance over the past year.” Although they said there’s progress on inflation, recent data shows that it has stalled.
- Fed policymakers said they would reduce the rate of shrinking its balance sheet beginning in June. This will be done by lowering the cap from $60 billion to $25 billion for the amount of Treasury maturities not reinvested every month.
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