United States of America

USD is strengthening against its main competitors – EUR, JPY, and GBP.

Today, data from the American labor market was published, which turned out to be ambiguous: the number of initial jobless claims increased by 231.0 thousand, exceeding the forecast of 212.0 thousand and the previous figure of 209.0 thousand, while the total number of citizens receiving government assistance increased from 1.768 million to 1.785 million, less significantly than preliminary estimates of 1.790 million. Thus, statistics confirmed that the sector is under pressure from the US Federal Reserve's tight monetary policy. We also note the latest comments from the President of the Boston Federal Reserve Bank (FRB), Susan Collins, who stated the need to reduce business activity to return inflation to the target level of 2.0% as soon as possible, otherwise interest rates will be kept at peak values for a long time.

Eurozone

EUR is weakening against USD and has ambiguous dynamics with JPY and GBP.

Investors remain focused on comments from representatives of the European Central Bank (ECB) regarding further steps in the field of monetary policy. Most of them agree that the parameters need to be adjusted at the June meeting, since at the end of March the consumer price index (CPI) dropped from 2.6% to 2.4%. Officials differ only on what steps to take next: some of them, such as the governor of the National Bank of Austria, Robert Holzmann, believe that it is not worth rushing to further ease monetary policy after the first rate cut, while other members of the regulator, like the governor of the National Bank of Belgium, Pierre Wunsch, insist that the economic risks of keeping the indicator at the peak level for too long are more serious than the risks of changing them too early. Most experts are confident that the "dovish" policy will be dominant this year, allowing the interest rate to be lowered at least three times, by a total of 70 basis points.

United Kingdom

GBP is weakening against USD and has ambiguous dynamics with JPY and EUR.

Investors are focused on the results of the Bank of England (BoE) meeting, following which the interest rate was expected to be kept at 5.25%, however, the opinions of officials of the Monetary Policy Committee were divided: seven of them were in favor of maintaining the current parameters, and two, Dave Ramsden and Swati Dhingra, advocated reducing borrowing costs. Thus, the number of supporters of easing monetary policy within the regulator has increased. Speaking at a press conference, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey indicated that the interest rate adjustment this year could be more significant than markets expect. Let us recall that currently most experts are counting on changes in June or August, and, according to their forecasts, there may be two reductions in total, with a total volume of 50 percentage points.

Japan

JPY is weakening against USD and has ambiguous dynamics with EUR and GBP.

Market participants weigh in on the summary of views from Bank of Japan officials, with most taking a “hawkish” stance at the latest meeting, noting the likelihood of interest rates rising faster than previously expected. Board members called for further adjustments to the measure as inflation could remain at or above 2.0% for an extended period. Note that at present, most experts are confident that the regulator will tighten monetary policy at least once more in the second half of this year.

Australia

AUD is strengthening against its main competitors – USD, GBP, EUR, and JPY.

Today, the final March data on building permits was presented: their total volume increased by 1.9% after a decrease of 0.9% a month earlier, and the same figure for private houses increased by 3.8%, which is significantly lower than in February (12.4%). Thus, the market is gradually recovering, acting as a driver of growth for the Australian economy.

Oil

Oil prices today have ambiguous dynamics.

The market is influenced by a number of opposing factors: on the one hand, its growth is facilitated by the publication of positive data on the Chinese economy, according to which exports grew by 1.5% in April, exceeding the 1.0% predicted by analysts, and imports by 8.4 %, with preliminary calculations at 5.4%, while oil supplies to the country amounted to 44.72 million tons (about 10.88 million barrels per day), which is 5.45% higher than the same period last year. The US Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) report on reserves presented yesterday showed a decrease of 1.363 million barrels against the forecast of 1.430 million barrels, but gasoline reserves increased by 0.915 million barrels and distillates by 0.560 million barrels.