The expectation the Fed will need to keep interest rates higher for longer is backed not just by “jawboning” but by a relatively strong outlook for US growth.
US economic growth in Q2 remains robust according to various nowcasting models that give real time estimates for growth.
“The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is tracking Q2 growth at 4.2% SAAR and will be updated next Wednesday after the data. Elsewhere, the New York Fed’s Nowcast model is tracking Q2 growth at 2.2% SAAR and will be updated tomorrow,” says BBH.
The models suggest continued inflationary pressures from economic activity which will further delay the decision to cut interest rates, keeping demand robust for USD.
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