- Disappointing US economic data released on Thursday reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve will start its easing program soon and lifted the Gold price to a two-week high.
- The US Department of Labor (DoL) reported that the number of Americans applying for unemployment insurance fell to 238K in the week ending June 15 compared to the 235K expected.
- Moreover, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said Housing Starts declined 5.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 982K units in May, and Building Permits fell 2.9% to 949K units.
- Adding to this, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index unexpectedly declined to 1.3 in June from 4.5 in the previous month, though it remained in positive territory for a fifth successive month.
- This comes on top of tepid US Retail Sales figures for May and signs of easing inflation, which keeps a September rate cut on the table and should lend support to the non-yielding yellow metal.
- The markets are also pricing in the possibility of another interest rate cut at the December policy meeting despite the Fed policymakers' hawkish outlook, indicating only one rate cut this year.
- Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari argued that the US economy has proven to be remarkably resilient and that it will probably take a year or two to get inflation back to the 2% target.
- Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin noted that the US central bank has sufficient firepower to address policy issues, but it will have to maintain a strict data-dependent approach.
- The US Treasury bond yields shook off softer US data and rose on Thursday in anticipation of new supply next week, pushing the US Dollar to the weekly top and capping gains for the XAU/USD.
- Investors now look forward to the release of flash PMI prints for cues about the health of the global economy, which should provide some impetus ahead of the US Existing Home Sales data.
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