Current trend

The NZD/USD pair is trading at 0.6105, preparing to continue growing despite poor macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand.

The consumer confidence index from the Australian and New Zealand banking group ANZ Group Ltd. amounted to 83.0 points, below the forecast of 84.2 points and the previous value of 84.9 points.The business optimism indicator from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) fell from 11.2 points to 6.1 points, reflecting the continuing pressure of the long-term “hawkish” monetary policy on business. The regulator’s activity forecast changed from 11.8% to 12.2% but the price is trying to grow from the support level of 0.6070. Positive dynamics are developing against growing investor expectations regarding the first cut in the US Fed interest rate. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch Instrument, swap markets estimate the probability of a 25 basis point adjustment in September at 56.3%.

The long-term trend is upward but within the correction, the instrument fell to the support level of 0.6070 in June, and after a reversal and consolidation above 0.6100, growth to 0.6205, 0.6262, and 0.6350 is possible. In case of consolidation below the support level of 0.6070, the correction will continue to the trend line of 0.5992–0.5981.

The medium-term trend remains upward. During last week’s correction, the quotes tested the trend line of 0.6082–0.6068. after a reversal, growth may reach 0.6145, and then the June high of 0.6220. After the price consolidates above 0.6220, the next target will be zone 3 (0.6286–0.6272). In case of a decline and consolidation below 0.6068, short positions, with the target in zone 2 (0.5942–0.5928), are relevant.

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 0.6205, 0.6262, 0.6350.

Support levels: 0.6100, 0.6070, 0.5990.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened above 0.6100, with the target at 0.6205 and stop loss 0.6070. Implementation period: 9–12 days.

Short positions may be opened below 0.6065, with the target at 0.5990 and stop loss 0.6095.