USD/CHF FALLS HALF A PERCENT AMID EXPECTATIONS THE FED WILL CUT INTEREST RATES MULTIPLE TIMES

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  • USD/CHF is in a tailspin amid growing expectations the Fed will make multiple cuts to interest rates in 2024, weakening the US Dollar. 
  • A string of below-par data releases and Kamala Harris’ growing popularity are weighing on the Greenback. 
  • USD/CHF falls over half a percent in a day. 

The USD/CHF pair trades down in the 0.8850s on Wednesday, driven by growing expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates in September. Such a move would weaken the US Dollar (USD), as lower interest rates tend to attract less foreign capital inflows.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, which uses the price of 30-day Fed Funds futures to calculate probabilities, there is a 95% chance of a Fed rate cut in September, with two more cuts likely by the end of the year. This expectation is weighing heavily on the USD, contributing to its decline against the Swiss Franc (CHF).

Another factor impacting USD/CHF is the news that US Vice President Kamala Harris has secured enough delegates to clinch the Democratic nomination. The latest Ipsos Reuters poll shows Harris leading Donald Trump, prompting some unwinding of the "Trump trade," which is typically correlated with higher US yields and a stronger USD.


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