Current trend

During the Asian session, the price of Brent Crude Oil is recovering from the “bearish” dynamics at the beginning of the week, renewing the lows of June 5 and testing 79.30, while traders expect new drivers for movement to emerge.

Today at 20:00 (GMT 2), the results of the two-day meeting of the US Fed on the interest rate is due: analysts do not expect a change in the vector of monetary policy but expect to hear additional signals in favor of the anticipated reduction of the indicator by 25 basis points in September. At 14:15 (GMT 2), investors will pay attention to the report from Automatic Data Processing (ADP), which will precede the final data on the labor market for July at the end of the week. Experts expect a slowdown in nonfarm payrolls from 206.0K to 175.0K and average hourly earnings from 3.9% to 3.7%. Additional support for the quotes is provided by statistics from the American Petroleum Institute (API) on the dynamics of commercial stocks. For the week of July 26, the indicator fell by 4.495M barrels after 3.900M barrels for the previous reporting week. At 16:00 (GMT 2), data from the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy (EIA) will appear, which previously reflected a decrease of 3.741M barrels.

Positive dynamics of the quotes are developing against increasing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East after Israel and the Lebanese paramilitary organization Hezbollah again exchanged a series of rocket attacks. In addition, representatives of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps reported the death of the head of the political bureau of the Palestinian movement Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, one of the key participants in the negotiations on the release of Israeli hostages and a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are steadily declining. The price range remains virtually unchanged, remaining spacious for the current activity level. The MACD indicator tries to reverse into an ascending plane, keeping a sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic is near the “20” mark, signaling that the instrument may become oversold in the ultra-short term. It is better to wait for the development of the situation and clarification of the signals from the indicator.

Resistance levels: 79.00, 80.00, 81.00, 82.00.

Support levels: 77.86, 77.00, 76.05, 75.04.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after a breakout of 80.00, with the target at 82.00. Stop loss – 79.00. Implementation period: 2–3 days.

Short positions may be opened after a rebound from the 80.00 level and a breakdown of 79.00, with the target at 77.00. Stop loss – 80.00.