In view of expectations that further rate cuts are on the cards from the Fed, the ECB and various other G10 central banks during Q4, the impact of RBNZ policy easing on the NZD crosses will likely be offset, Rabobank’s FX strategist Jane Foley notes.

Escalation in the Middle East to undermine the AUD and NZD

“While an announcement of a 50-bps rate cut next week would likely still push the NZD lower, we would expect buyers to emerge on dips below the NZD/USD0.62 level, on optimism that Chinese stimulus will boost regional demand for New Zealand exports.”

“That said, given the less dovish stance of the RBA, we would look for AUD/NZD to continue its recent trend higher towards 1.11 on a 3-month view. A clear caveat to the recent better tone in both the AUD and the NZD is the outlook for the broader tone of risk appetite.”

“Further escalation in Middle Eastern tensions would support the USD and undermine the AUD and NZD. This risk underscores our preference for the AUD/NZD trade.”