- Middle East conflict shocks markets: Rising oil prices from the Iran war could increase inflation pressure in Japan.
- Rate hike back on the table: Sources say the Bank of Japan may consider another rate hike as early as April.
- Policy shift: The BOJ is now focusing more on inflation risks rather than just supporting economic growth.
- Investor expectations: Markets are pricing about a 60% chance of an April rate hike.
- Inflation pressure rising:
- Firms expect inflation around 2.4% over the next five years
- Households expect 9.8% inflation, showing rising price concerns.
- Wages also rising: Japan saw its biggest pay increase in 34 years, reinforcing inflation momentum.
- Risk remains: If the war causes a global slowdown, the BOJ may delay tightening to protect Japan’s fragile recovery.
- Punch line: The Iran war may not just shake energy markets — it could push the Bank of Japan closer to another interest rate hike.
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