XAGUSD 4H — Is Silver Setting a Bull Trap Near $59.86?

#XAG/USD#

Silver remains technically bearish despite the current recovery. Price is still producing lower highs beneath the descending trendline, while the broader structure continues to favor sellers.

The recent bounce from approximately $56.86 appears corrective rather than impulsive. Price has reclaimed the 0.236 and 0.382 Fibonacci levels and is now trading around the 0.50 retracement near $58.81. This recovery could continue higher before the next bearish expansion begins.

The Main Area I’m Watching

My preferred scenario is for price to continue retracing toward the unfilled imbalance surrounding the solid blue line at approximately $59.86.

This area contains several important points of confluence:

0.62 Fibonacci: $59.28

0.79 Fibonacci: $59.94

Unfilled fair value gap

Descending trendline resistance

Previous support that may now act as resistance

Potential lower-high formation

The zone between approximately $59.25 and $59.95 is therefore the main bearish decision area.

A rally into this zone would allow Silver to fill the remaining inefficiency, collect liquidity above recent highs and test descending resistance before potentially rotating lower.

Confirmation I Would Look For

Reaching the blue line alone is not enough. I would want to see sellers confirm their presence through a strong rejection wick, bearish engulfing candle, failed breakout or lower-timeframe bearish structure shift.

Without confirmation, price could continue toward the previous swing high.

Bearish Targets

If Silver rejects the blue-line area, the levels I would monitor are:

🎯 $58.35 — 0.382 retracement
🎯 $57.78 — 0.236 retracement
🎯 $56.86 — recent swing low
🎯 $55.81 — negative 0.27 extension
🎯 $54.46 — negative 0.618 extension

A decisive break beneath the rising support and $56.86 swing low would confirm bearish continuation and expose the deeper extension targets.

Invalidation

The bearish idea begins to lose validity if price breaks above the descending trendline and establishes acceptance above approximately $60.75.

A sustained close above that level would break the current lower-high structure and open the door toward $61.14 and $61.53.

Final Outlook

My bias remains bearish, but I am expecting Silver to retrace higher before continuing lower.

The ideal move would be a fill of the imbalance near the solid blue line around $59.86, followed by a confirmed rejection from the descending trendline and Fibonacci resistance.

Will Silver fill the gap and trap late buyers before falling—or will it break through resistance and invalidate the bearish setup?

Comment your bias below: BULLISH or BEARISH?

WrightWayInvestments
WrightWayInvestments
WrightWayInvestments