🌅 Morning Update | ...来自NORDFX Global

18 Jun 2025, 15:09 · 阅读量 96

🌅 Morning Update | 18.06.2025 📈 US indices edge higher, recouping yesterday’s losses, even as oil 🛢️ stays firm above $76 amid ongoing Middle East tensions. European futures point to a positive open, but overall volatility in global equities remains moderate. 🇯🇵 Bank of Japan kept rates unchanged at 0.5%, as expected. Nikkei 225 futures jumped +1.5%, while USD/JPY slipped 0.2%. 📉 Gold dipped 0.05% to $3,386/oz, while bitcoin ₿ bounced back above $105.5k, recovering from yesterday’s fall to $103.9k. Crypto sentiment remains cautious, reflecting investor unease. 📰 The New York Times reports that Iran has prepared missiles and other military assets to strike US bases if Donald Trump escalates involvement. Meanwhile, VIX futures dropped 0.8%, hinting at slightly calmer market nerves. 💥 The main stress point today is oil, which has rebounded to its highest level since January. 📌 Key events to watch today: 🔹 US Jobless Claims Report at 12:30 PM GMT — figures above 250k could spark risk-off mood on Wall Street. 🔹 Fed Decision at 6 PM GMT and Jerome Powell’s press conference at 6:30 PM GMT — markets eye fresh clues on the policy outlook. #MorningUpdate #MarketNews #Forex #Crypto #Oil #Gold #Fed

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Fed Week + GDP/PCE: USD, Gold, Oil and Crypto Before Month End | NordFX Market Watch Buckle up 🎢 Three market moving events in five days, plus a live war in the Middle East underneath it all. Here is what matters before August opens. 🏛️ The Fed, July 29 FOMC decides Wednesday at 2:00pm ET. Rates have sat at 3.50 to 3.75% since June, but this time markets are actually debating a hike, not a cut. Inflation is reaccelerating and energy costs are back in the headlines. No dot plot this round, so Chair Kevin Warsh's tone may move markets more than the decision itself. 🔍 📊 GDP and PCE Right on the Fed's heels, the advance Q2 GDP estimate and June PCE, the Fed's favorite inflation gauge, land before month end. Hot data firms up hike bets fast. Soft data flips the script. Either way, the final days of July get choppy. 💵 USD DXY is grinding near 101, its best level in a month, cooling slightly as oil pulls back. A hawkish Fed plus hot PCE could send it toward 102. 🥇 Gold Spot gold sits around 4,090 to 4,100 an ounce, bouncing off a nine month low after the US paused strikes on Iran over the weekend. Caught between safe haven demand and a firmer dollar, ready to swing either way on fresh headlines. 🛢️ Oil The real story of July. Brent spiked near 100 dollars a barrel at the peak of the Iran conflict and Red Sea attacks, then sank over 7% on the strike pause, back toward 90 to 92. This is the biggest swing factor for inflation, and for the Fed. ₿ Crypto Bitcoin holds around 64,000, stuck in a tight range as traders wait for rate clarity. A hawkish surprise could test lower support, a dovish tilt could spark a relief rally. The takeaway: volatility is not a risk this week, it is the base case. 📈📉 Trade it with a broker built for fast markets. Open your NordFX account: https://my.nordfx.com/en/regis...

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📊 NordFX: Register, Open the EUR/USD Chart and Test a Central-Bank Scenario The euro just hit its strongest level in a month, trading near $1.145 🚀 And the reason is a genuine central-bank standoff few traders get to watch play out live. 🇪🇺 On June 11 the ECB hiked rates for the first time in three years, taking the deposit rate to 2.25%, driven by an energy-price shock from Middle East tensions. Its next decision lands July 23, but the real test is September, where markets are now pricing in a further hike. 🇺🇸 On June 17 the Fed held rates steady and dropped its easing bias. Then June inflation data came in unexpectedly soft, cooling bets on any further Fed tightening and pulling the dollar lower. Two central banks, two opposite signals, one pair caught in the middle 🌍 That's not a chart pattern, that's a live experiment in monetary policy. So here's the real question: what happens to EUR/USD if the ECB hikes again in September while the Fed stays on hold? Open the chart, mark $1.145 as your reference point, and test the scenario yourself 📈 Ready to trade the story as it unfolds? Register with NordFX and start testing your own central-bank scenarios on a live EUR/USD chart 👇 🔗 https://my.nordfx.com/en/regis...

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ECB July Decision Preview: Why Energy Prices and the Euro Matter More Than the Headline | NordFX The ECB announces its rate decision today at 14:15 CET, with Lagarde's press conference to follow at 14:45 CET. Markets have priced in a hold at 2.25% with over 90% probability. 📌 But whatever the headline number says, it'll be the least interesting part of this story. 🛢️ Energy is calling the shots. June's hike to 2.25%, the ECB's first in three years, was triggered by an oil shock tied to Middle East tensions, pushing the 2026 inflation forecast up to 3.0%. Inflation has since eased to 2.8%, but renewed US–Iran hostilities are pushing crude back up right now, which is exactly why a hold, not a victory lap, is expected today. 🎢 The tightrope behind the guidance. Eurozone growth is fragile, around 0.8%, with Q1 GDP briefly negative. Yet markets still price roughly two more hikes into early 2027 if energy keeps climbing, likely starting in September. Too much inflation risk to cut, too little growth to hike now. ⚖️ The real trade: Fed vs ECB. EUR/USD is glued near $1.14, close to one-year lows, as the Fed weighs its own next step against sticky US inflation. A hold above 1.14 keeps the bullish structure alive; a break lower opens the door to 1.10–1.13. The Fed's July 29 decision, just six days away, could decide it. 🔍 What to watch at 14:15: the rate call itself, then Lagarde's tone on energy and the September meeting. That's where the real market-moving signal will be. 👉 Follow up after the announcement for the verdict and what it means for EUR/USD. Trade the divergence with NordFX 👉 https://my.nordfx.com/en/regis...

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🪙 NordFX Crypto News of the Week: Washington, ETF Inflows and a Sleeping Whale 📈 Crypto regained momentum. bitcoin climbed above $66,000 and reached its highest level in around five weeks. Softer US inflation supported risk appetite, while spot bitcoin ETFs attracted approximately $727 million over the week. Ether outperformed, gaining around 8% over seven sessions and approaching $1,930. 🏛️ Washington returned to crypto regulation. The White House and US senators intensified negotiations over the CLARITY Act, which is designed to establish clearer rules for digital assets. Ethics restrictions, anti-money-laundering requirements and the division of authority between regulators remain the main obstacles ahead of a possible Senate vote. 🌍 Global regulators raised the alarm. An international financial-crime watchdog warned that organised criminal groups are exploiting gaps between national crypto regulations to move and launder billions of dollars. 🔐 Gaming became a crypto-security risk. US investigators arrested a suspect linked to malware hidden inside downloadable games. The programme allegedly infected around 8,000 devices and helped steal more than $220,000 from dozens of crypto wallets. 🐋 Fun fact of the week: a bitcoin wallet that had remained inactive for more than eight years suddenly transferred 5,907 BTC worth approximately $383 million. The coins were moved to another wallet rather than an exchange, leaving the owner’s plans a mystery. ⚡ Politics, inflation, institutional flows and long-silent whales all reminded traders that the crypto market never truly sleeps.

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