Weekly Economic Calendar: Week of 25 - 29 May, 2026 (GMT+8)
This week’s economic calendar is heavily focused on Japan GDP, UK labour and inflation data, Eurozone CPI, U.S. FOMC Meeting Minutes, crude oil inventories, UK PMI data, U.S. manufacturing indicators, U.S. jobless claims and UK retail sales.
The strongest market-moving period comes from Wednesday to Friday, where traders will face a concentrated group of high-impact events: UK CPI, Eurozone CPI, Crude Oil Inventories, FOMC Meeting Minutes, UK Services PMI, UK Manufacturing PMI, UK Composite PMI, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, Initial Jobless Claims, U.S. Manufacturing PMI and UK Retail Sales. This creates a strong volatility setup for USD, GBP, EUR, JPY, gold, crude oil, U.S. indices and global risk sentiment.
| Key highlights: |
🇺🇸 26 May, 22:00 - CB Consumer Confidence (May)
🇳🇿 27 May, 10:00 - RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
🇪🇺 28 May, 01:00 - ECB Press Conference
🇺🇸 28 May, 20:30 - Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Apr)
🇺🇸 28 May, 20:30 - Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Apr)
🇺🇸 28 May, 20:30 - GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
🇺🇸 28 May, 20:30 - Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Apr)
🇺🇸 28 May, 20:30 - Initial Jobless Claims
🇺🇸 28 May, 22:00 - New Home Sales (Apr)
🇺🇸 29 May, 00:00 - Crude Oil Inventories
🇩🇪 29 May, 20:00 - German CPI (MoM) (May)
🇺🇸 29 May, 21:45 - Chicago PMI (May)
🇳🇿 27 May, 10:00 - RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
🇪🇺 28 May, 01:00 - ECB Press Conference
🇺🇸 28 May, 20:30 - Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Apr)
🇺🇸 28 May, 20:30 - Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Apr)
🇺🇸 28 May, 20:30 - GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
🇺🇸 28 May, 20:30 - Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Apr)
🇺🇸 28 May, 20:30 - Initial Jobless Claims
🇺🇸 28 May, 22:00 - New Home Sales (Apr)
🇺🇸 29 May, 00:00 - Crude Oil Inventories
🇩🇪 29 May, 20:00 - German CPI (MoM) (May)
🇺🇸 29 May, 21:45 - Chicago PMI (May)
🇺🇸 U.S. Consumer Confidence and USD Sentiment
U.S. CB Consumer Confidence will be watched as an early signal of household confidence, with the forecast at 91.9 compared with the previous 92.8. A stronger reading may support the USD by showing that consumers remain resilient despite inflation and rate uncertainty. A weaker reading may pressure the Dollar if traders see signs of softer consumer demand.
🇳🇿 RBNZ Interest Rate Decision and NZD Volatility
The RBNZ interest rate decision is forecast to remain unchanged at 2.25%, matching the previous rate. If the RBNZ sounds cautious about growth or inflation, NZD may react sharply. A more hawkish tone could support NZD, while a dovish tone may weaken it.
🇪🇺 ECB Press Conference and EUR Direction
The ECB press conference may influence EUR sentiment, especially if policymakers discuss inflation pressure, growth risks or future policy guidance. A cautious but inflation-focused tone may support EUR, while a more dovish tone may pressure the currency.
🇺🇸 Core PCE and the Main USD Inflation Test
The most important U.S. event of the week is the Core PCE release. Core PCE MoM is expected at 0.30%, while Core PCE YoY is expected at 3.30%, compared with the previous 3.20%. Since Core PCE is closely watched by the Federal Reserve, a hotter-than-expected reading may support USD and Treasury yields. A softer reading may weaken USD if traders increase expectations for future policy easing. Kiplinger also highlights April PCE and Core PCE as the key inflation update of the week.
🇺🇸 U.S. GDP, Durable Goods and Growth Momentum
U.S. GDP QoQ is forecast at 2.00%, while Durable Goods Orders are forecast at 3.30%, higher than the previous 0.80%. Stronger growth and orders data may support USD by showing that business investment and economic activity remain firm. Weaker readings may pressure USD by raising concerns over slowing growth.
🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims and Labour Market Stability
Initial Jobless Claims are forecast at 209K, matching the previous reading. If claims remain low, it may support the view that the U.S. labour market is still stable. If claims rise above expectations, USD may weaken as traders price in early labour-market softness.
🇺🇸 Crud Oil Inventories and Inflation Sentiment
Crude Oil Inventories will be closely watched after the previous reading showed a draw of -7.863M. A larger-than-expected draw may support oil prices and keep inflation concerns alive. A surprise build may weigh on crude oil prices and reduce near-term inflation pressure. The EIA also notes that this week’s petroleum report is delayed to Thursday because of the U.S. federal holiday.
🇩🇪 German CPI and EUR Inflation Sensitivity
German CPI MoM previously stood at 0.60%. Since Germany is the Eurozone’s largest economy, stronger inflation may support EUR by reducing expectations for aggressive ECB easing. Softer inflation may pressure EUR if traders expect the ECB to adopt a more accommodative tone.
This week is shaped mainly by U.S. inflation, growth, labour-market stability, housing demand, manufacturing momentum and crude oil inventory data. The market is watching whether U.S. data remains strong enough to support a firmer Dollar, or whether softer indicators may increase expectations for future Fed easing.
The USD may strengthen if Core PCE remains sticky, GDP stays firm, durable goods beat expectations, jobless claims remain low and Chicago PMI improves. However, the Dollar may weaken if inflation cools, growth data disappoints, jobless claims rise or manufacturing data remains weak.
🟢 Bullish USD Scenario – Stronger Dollar Case
Core PCE Comes in Hotter - A higher-than-expected Core PCE reading may support USD as traders expect the Fed to stay cautious on rate cuts.
U.S. GDP Remains Firm - A strong GDP reading may show that the economy remains resilient despite high rates.
Durable Goods Orders Beat Expectations - Strong orders may suggest stable business investment and support USD sentiment.
Jobless Claims Stay Low - Claims near or below 209K may reinforce the view that the labour market remains strong.
Chicago PMI Improves Above 50 - A stronger PMI reading may show manufacturing recovery and support the Dollar.
Crude Oil Inventories Show a Larger Draw - A larger draw may support oil prices and keep inflation concerns alive, indirectly supporting USD.
🟡 Wild Cards – High Whipsaw Risk
Core PCE vs GDP Split - If inflation comes in hot but GDP disappoints, USD pairs may swing sharply in both directions.
RBNZ Surprise - Any unexpected shift in RBNZ guidance may create strong NZD volatility.
ECB Press Conference Tone - A hawkish or dovish surprise from the ECB may move EUR pairs quickly.
Crude Oil Inventory Surprise - A large draw may lift oil and inflation expectations, while a large build may reduce inflation pressure.
German CPI Surprise - A stronger German CPI reading may support EUR, while a weaker reading may pressure it.
Chicago PMI Direction - A move above or below the 50 expansion line may influence late-week USD sentiment.
🔴 Bearish USD Scenario – Weaker Dollar Case
Core PCE Cools More Than Expected - Softer inflation may pressure USD as traders price in a more dovish Fed outlook.
GDP Misses Forecast - A weaker GDP reading may raise concerns about slowing U.S. growth.
Durable Goods Orders Disappoint - Weak orders may suggest softer business investment.
Jobless Claims Rise - Claims moving clearly above 209K may signal early labour-market weakness.
Chicago PMI Falls Back Below 50 - A weaker PMI reading may show that manufacturing remains under pressure.
Crude Oil Inventories Show a Surprise Build - A build may weigh on oil prices and reduce inflation concerns, pressuring USD.
Core PCE Cools More Than Expected - Softer inflation may pressure USD as traders price in a more dovish Fed outlook.
GDP Misses Forecast - A weaker GDP reading may raise concerns about slowing U.S. growth.
Durable Goods Orders Disappoint - Weak orders may suggest softer business investment.
Jobless Claims Rise - Claims moving clearly above 209K may signal early labour-market weakness.
Chicago PMI Falls Back Below 50 - A weaker PMI reading may show that manufacturing remains under pressure.
Crude Oil Inventories Show a Surprise Build - A build may weigh on oil prices and reduce inflation concerns, pressuring USD.
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